Prediction Market Expert

Forecasting research

Contribute structured forecasts that help AI models reason more reliably about uncertainty. Topics may include geopolitical developments, financial markets, elections, sports, and other significant events.

• Assess potential outcomes of events in industry, markets, and the wider world.
• Develop probability estimates supported by current events and public evidence.
• Explain the reasoning clearly within specified annotation formats.
• Review forecasting data for consistency and accuracy.
• Interpret rapidly changing news and intelligence signals while maintaining dependable annotation quality.

Relevant skills

You should be comfortable thinking in likelihoods and keeping up with market trends, geopolitics, or current events. Clear writing, attention to detail, a consistent analytical approach, and reliable independent work are essential.

Experience with prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or Metaculus is helpful but not required.

Useful background

Finance, economics, political science, statistics, and journalism are relevant fields. Forecasting competitions, prediction services, Bayesian reasoning, and structured analytical methods are also useful experience.

Arrangement

This fully remote hourly contract offers flexible scheduling and freelance independence. You contribute alongside an international group of specialists, with the possibility of ongoing contract work.